THE LEDGER
Appendix — the receipts
The full build-up ledger, every calculation, and every source. Reference material — the story lives in the tabs before this one.
The 60-month build-up ledger
The engine's raw output — every milestone, every column, nothing summarized. This is the table everything else on the site is drawn from.
| Period | Active Residential | Active Commercial-HOA | Total active | Recurring $/mo | One-off $/mo | Total $/mo | Cumulative revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 8.6 | $3,983 | $16,667 | $20,650 | $58,040 |
| Q2 | 22.3 | 3.7 | 26.0 | $12,357 | $37,500 | $49,857 | $199,468 |
| Q3 | 40.9 | 7.4 | 48.3 | $24,026 | $58,333 | $82,359 | $435,303 |
| Yr 1 | 57.2 | 11.6 | 68.8 | $36,208 | $70,833 | $107,041 | $744,744 |
| Yr 2 | 79.6 | 24.7 | 104.4 | $69,587 | $75,000 | $144,587 | $2,320,765 |
| Yr 3 | 72.1 | 32.3 | 104.4 | $85,027 | $75,000 | $160,027 | $4,168,680 |
| Yr 4 | 59.0 | 36.0 | 95.0 | $90,798 | $75,000 | $165,798 | $6,133,713 |
| Yr 5 | 46.7 | 37.0 | 83.7 | $90,849 | $75,000 | $165,849 | $8,127,986 |
CALCULATIONS
How each number is calculated
| Item | How it is calculated |
|---|---|
| leads | Demand × acquisition rate. |
| customers | Leads closed at benchmark close rates, blended across one-off and account work. |
| new revenue | Customers × average values. First-order revenue before the account value. |
| LTV per tier | Contract value × billed months per year × retention years + snow value. |
| accounts formed | Commercial leads × close rate × the share of won jobs that become standing accounts. |
| active accounts (churn) | Accounts formed minus accounts leaving (based on retention years). |
| pool cap | The engine stops winning accounts as the cumulative won approaches the total winnable pool in the market. |
| recurring per month | Active accounts × annualized contract value, divided by 12. |
| one-off per month | Project leads × close rates × average project ticket. |
| the year-one ramp | 22% → 50% → 78% → 94% → 100% by quarter, modeling map and organic maturity. |
SOURCES
Sources & references
Search demand — verified across three independent search-data tools (reports on file)
Ranking grid & profile data — your market's live ranking-grid report drops in here
Market size — U.S. Census County Business Patterns, employer establishments for Your Market Area · regional economic profile — Your Market Area
Firm-size cross-check — XX 100+ employee firms · XX 20–99 · XX 5–19
Close rates & account-conversion — industry benchmark studies (10–25% of commercial customers become ongoing accounts; model uses the bottom of the range)
Local pricing — June 2026 multi-provider market survey; local aggregator average $743 per job
USAGE
How to use this assessment
1
Read the tabs left to right — proof, then numbers.
2
Change anything on Assumptions — every page recalculates.
3
Gray "median" captions appear only where you have moved a dial.
4
Full Report carries whatever the dials currently say.